Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
