Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a ability provided through current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone close by, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
